The Future of Intelligence by Mark M. Lowenthal

Author:Mark M. Lowenthal
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Published: 2017-11-06T05:00:00+00:00

However, the dependency noted between data analytics and tools does not exist between non-data analytics or traditional analytics and these other tools. Analysts can choose to use them or not, depending on their preferences or perceived needs. These tools can be useful but they are not mandatory.

The key issue with either set of tools is knowing which tool to use when. Not every tool is apt for every step in the data analytic process or useful for a given analytic problem. Therefore, to use the tools correctly, the analyst has to be familiar with the tools and know when to choose which tool. This may actually be easier for data analytics as there is a process with definable and distinct steps. This is not the case in the same formal sense for many of the issues dealt with by traditional analysts. There is also the tendency on the part of some analysts to become enamored of one or two tools and to use those even when they may not be the most appropriate. This is obviously problematic and underscores why analysts should familiarize themselves with a broader array of analytic tools. Psychologist Abraham Maslow put it succinctly, “When all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.”

The final issue to be considered is the future of the types of ways in which analysis is presented, which are usually referred to as products. This is something of a misnomer as it seems to connote an actual “production line,” cranking out analysis, which is not quite the case. Still, it is the term used among analysts and analytic managers.

This is the one step in the overall intelligence process – dissemination – that has long been well handled. The issue in dissemination, which comes after the analysis has been completed, is: Which analytic vehicle (or product) should we use to get the right intelligence to the right policy maker at the right time and in the manner in which he or she prefers to see it? There is an established “product line,” if you will, seven or eight types of analytic vehicles that can be selected. Some of these are standing or recurring formal types, such as the President's Daily Brief (PDB) or national intelligence estimates. Other types are more generic – briefings, memos – whose selection are driven by the criteria noted above, especially timeliness and required detail. It is also important to understand that the list is not restrictive or final in terms of choices. Analysts can go back and forth and use different analytic vehicles with the same policy maker over the course of an issue's development. For example, a crisis type of issue might first be handled by a telephone call or a brief message, later followed up with a more detailed paper or briefing, and so on. Again, what matters is what intelligence is needed when and how.

The best way to have effective intelligence dissemination is to talk with policy makers to determine what they need, what they want (not the same as what they need), and how they prefer to receive their intelligence.

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